Telecomm Price Pressure was Announce The Vintage Computer Forum 1108

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*This* is more or less my answer too, but it would have taken me quite a lot of effort to write it down as well, let alone translate it to pbuttable English. Thank you for your post. Some additions:

- I am talking about the current situation in (Western) Europe, were the telecom monopolies always have been extremely hesitant to offer additional services beyond simple point-to-point communication, and always at premium prices (salami tactics). I think that it is no exaggeration to claim that the European mbutt consumer had voice mail and caller-id for the first time when s-he bought a mobile phone (~1998-2002, now there's market saturation). - My expectations are written from the engineering point of view. My estimate of a hybrid phone costing EUR 50 now is a back of the envelope calculation for a run of 10.000 - 50.000 units. In 9-12 months they will cost EUR 25 or less. When I say free, I mean that there are no technological barriers. Everything will hinge on the business models, power struggles, and the absence of jerks from Powercable, Nebraska who have a US patent on voice transmission by radio waves or crap like that.

- Wireless - internet hybrid technology is an alternative to the copper network (heavily monopolized & regulated), and GSM towers (at least heavily regulated), and it is avaliable right now. A possibility is that they will provide 'the last mile', but there are far more exciting possibilities, such as spontaneous private, secure phone nets.

- The traditional protestations about Quality Of Service, etc., are well understood, but they have been shown not to be as relevant as it is claimed. In practice, the H.323 and SIP standards are more an entrance barrier than a valid standard for minimum service quality.

What I and others observe is that the telecom business is changing more rapidly and more radically than most people dare to think, even here in afc.

scs