The 8008 1787

Amazed ato how fast this debate went into mud-slinging. It remains the most important challenge facing humanity.

Nope; or you're right, depending on viewpoint.

It all hangs on the energy supply.

With cheap energy you can make fertilizer out of thin air (literally!), make sea water drinkable, move around earth so a bit more of it becomes arable, move around water to make even more of the earth arable, and from the products of these processes you can make food, cars, toys, newspapers etc.

This is problem #1, secure a sustainable, cheap energy source.

In 1993 the electricity generated had these sources (www.ieer.org) : (TWh)

FOSSIL HYDRO NUCLEAR OTHER TOTAL World 7,700 2,400 2,200 50 12,300

The component that has gone up since then is the fossil part. Hydro and nuclear has gone down, percentage-wise. We now consume around 5-3rds as much electricity planet-wide as we did in 1993. The usage of that electricity is today distributed with a third for SE Asia, a third for Europe, and a third for North America.

The total distribution of energy genration was in 1999 :

Total Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Other 40% 23% 23% 7% 6% 1%

We all know what is happening to the oil part. It will remain steady or make a small decline in the short term, and decay during the next century. Gas may give a short reprieve, as it is still on the rise. It is somewhat more environment-friendly, but doesn't have a chance to take over oil's leading part of energy generation. Coal is not an attractive alternative, but it has reserves for a century or so (we may not have reserves of athnosphere to receive that carbon though).

Hydro generated power has a limited potential, as around 50% of the world's potential hydropower has already been built out.

The nuclear part has been living on a windfall from the end of the cold war, as consumption is larger than production. This is possible because the nukes are being reprocessed and released as civilian energy. This has happened at a rate of 20.000 tons Uranium since 1992, but is slowing down because by now around 80% of the nukes from the cold war are in fact gone.

Uranium production has suffered, and is now only 60.000 tons-year, expected to rise to around 80.000 tons-year soon. It was a lot higher in the sixtes. No significant surveying for Uranium has taken place for almost half a century.

They haven't.

This is dwarfed by the energy part. Use of crude oil for plastics only ranks as problem #10 or so.

The US and Europe is in great danger of being the ones ordered around if this energy crunch is not solved.

Storms happen. Look what happened to the Dutch in 1952. They solved the problem. It is called the Delta project. It was a huge undertaking, even for an advanced nation like the Dutch.

-- mrr