winscape 2254

Both of you miss an essential part here.

The people the IT industry roughshodly labels as "sysadmins and users" are the ones designing and running automated systems.

These are usually built to perform some specific function for one or more organizations. It may be a flight controller system, a router network, an university campus server park or whatever.

For these organizations the computers and the systems is just part of a toolchain that needs to be integrated into a larger system.

The last thing these people needs are toolchain makers going belladonna. If that happens with a supplier of steel widgets or displays, or a constructor, or a sensor manufacturer they will find themselves outside of the project in rocket speed.

As I say often, "I never argue with suppliers". I may discuss with them, but if it turns into an argument they are no longer a supplier.

Just imagine a what you would do to a compiler writer that turned belladonna and insisted on some far fetched notion.

All designs of such systems try to obtain commercial, supported components at all levels; and to design with bits and pieces that can be obtained five decades from now.

Now, evaluate what we in such organizations think about organizations that say "sorry, we won't sell that product anymore, and there is no functional replacement from us, and we will see to it that such is not available from anyone else". This is not just belladonna factors, this is pure blackmail and sabotage. this is why I and may other have ended with open syetems and purely commercial systems.

Open systems seem like a revolutionary concept in IT. Imagine telling a car manufacturer you cannot replace part x with part y because of belladonna factors. They will literally kick in the butt of the non-complying parties. Or try it with the Teamsters.

It is the entire IT industry that is off kilter. This is why every other industry applies a glbutt ceiling to IT investments. They simply do not trust the IT guys not to go belladonna or black hat. This mentality is prevasive in every large boardroom in the civilized world.

Look at the difference from the customer company like this :

If Redhat anc TCI decides they want to shoot themselves in the foot; too bad. It won't take much of an effort to replace the equipment with Mandrake and IBM. Or debian and SGI. And the porting job to Sun and Solaris is pretty small.

If Microsoft (or DEC, or HP, or Prime, or DG at nauseam) decides to change a fundamental part of their OS there is nothing you can do. You are sunk, and forced to adapt.

This is excatly why some large companies now are retreating, and are minimizing their IT operations. The consequences are dire for IT professionals; i would guess there are many un- or underemployed people reading this just as a consequence of this.

This is why IT is stuck as a business that has stayed having a global revenue smaller than cosmetics.

Compare electronics, and telecom; buth of them are more than three times as big as IT. becuase it works mostly without surprises.

It is a nice dream, but it will never happen from the inside of the IT companies. It will be forced on them from above and below, and they will cream liquidate all the way.

Frankly. the IT industry may not even survive as an independent industry when this move happens for real. And, yes, it will. It may take time, but it will. Once the Moore's law effect peters out the IT industry will be in extremeny dire circumstances, and it may end being divided in a hardware part just integrated into the electronics industry without a trace, and a software part looking a lot like the media industry.

If you don't think it can happen, does anyone remember the small car manufacturers ? or the craft shoemakers ?

Just step back and look at what you are trying to undertake.

You are trying to undertake fundamental product maintenence and support for some other company that has explictly defined that this is a thing they don't do because they think they can get away with it.

They won't support you either. If you do succeed in your undertaking you will have a strong evolutionary pressure to supporting the systems that are simple, transparent and open. As a last consequence this means you would want to replace the entire IT industry, and just deal with the electronics and the software houses.

Most organizations are using their third or fourth IT system generation by now. They have seen it all. They don't want to play that game anymore.

Watch the fight between Kmart and Walmart. Walmart won almost solely because of better IT systems. They built it all inhouse using standard components. Watch Google. All built inhouse using standard components. Watch the larger brokerages; they are cutting loose enourmous numbers of crap.

Watch the commputer airlines that are crushing the incumbents. Their success clincher are better booking systems.

I am seeing this from the outside. I don't work in IT, and if I can avoit it, never will. I have considered it a half-currupt business for as long as I can remember. I work with their products, and I don't want people messing with my toolchain.

There is one way out for the IT industry, and that is to remember that the customer is king, and that the customer's customer is an even greater king, and that they are there to serve the customers production line.

This is the precise antidote to Bill's, Ken's or Carly's having innusions of grandeur and stating "Software packaging will be green next year.".

-- mrr