Will Bush Singh India's Tune

When Indian Prime Ministers visit the US, they make big headlines in India, but very small ones (or none at all) in the US. That should put Manmohan Singh's visit in perspective. India today occupies only a tiny corner of the US radar screen. However, making even a blip is an achievement.

Ten years ago, India was not on the screen at all. It has now arrived, thanks partly to 9-11 but mainly to Indian success in computer software, BPO and R&D. These service industries suddenly make India look world-clbutt, threatening millions of white-collar jobs in the US and Europe.

An economy that is feared is automatically respected. Once seen as a bottomless pit for foreign aid, India is now seen as a rising new economic power.

This is why US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared during her recent visit that the US wanted to help India become a global power. That sounds great, but cynics argue that this is mere flattery to divert Indian attention from US sales of F-16 fighters to Pakistan.

The Prime Minister has said on the eve of his Washington trip that India is no more a supplicant, and seeks to be a partner of the US. It is true that India no longer begs on its knees for aid, as it did in the 1960s. Yet, on most issues, Dr Singh will be asking rather than giving.

For the US, good relations with India are useful but not essential. For India, good relations are crucial. India may like to pose as partner rather than supplicant, but it will be a very unequal partnership.

Dr Singh will ask a lot of the US, yet have little to give. India can present itself as a force for stability in an unstable region breeding Islamic militants. It can also be an Asian counterforce to China in limited ways. But it cannot offer the US military bases. At most it can offer its help in low-end security operations (like escorting ships through the Straits of Malacca). The list of what Dr Singh will be seeking from the US is much longer and runs like this...

l Membership of UN Security Council: India, along with Germany, Japan and Brazil, seeks a General buttembly vote to admit them. Bush will tell Dr Singh that the US favours India but not the others, and that Security Council expansion must be linked to comprehensive UN reforms.

l Membership of London Club of Nuclear Suppliers: India seeks formal acceptance as a responsible N-power that wants to prevent proliferation. The US won't agree. Formal membership would mean lifting curbs on nuclear supplies to India, and giving up the long-standing US demand that India sign the NPT.

l US equipment and know-how for India's N-power plants: Rice spoke of nuclear cooperation. However, the London Club makes supplies contingent on India placing all nuclear facilities, including defence-related ones, under international safeguards. India absolutely refuses. It proposes safeguards only on new facilities created with foreign buttistance. The impbutte will not easily be resolved. Even if Bush wants to lift curbs, US legislation will come in the way. Dr Singh could try lobbying the India Caucus to change the law, but the mood is unfavourable.

l Indian purchase of US weapons: Rice offered to sell India F-18 planes, which are much superior to F-16s being sold to Pakistan. Historically, the US has proved an unreliable supplier: US Congress can always pbutt legislation overriding a bilateral deal. But with the end of the Cold War, India is no longer in the Soviet camp, and 9-11 has brought the two countries together against terrorism. In this new atmosphere, defence deals look more promising. Defence minister Pranab Mukherjee has spoken of India maintaining, repairing and servicing US planes and ships, and this could be a new service industry.

l Pakistan and terrorism: US pressure has helped reduce Pakistani help to militants. But there are limits to this: Pervez Musharraf has internal compulsions that Washington understands and sympathises with. Dr Singh will seek and get renewed US butturances on this, but they will not amount to much.

l Indo-US FTA on services: India worries about possible US curbs on compebreastive Indian service exports. So, some (though by no means all) trade experts favour an Indo-US Free Trade Agreement on services. However, the US wants any FTA to cover all trade, not just trade in services: it has taken this position in signing FTAs with several countries already. A comprehensive FTA would expose Indian farmers to rivalry from subsidised American produce - politically unthinkable in New Delhi.

l Liberal visas for Indian techies: Ideally, this should be accompanied by a pact giving the Indian government a share in unclaimed social security taxes paid by visiting Indians. Progress may be possible on these fronts. US unemployment is falling, the economy is doing well. These are favourable conditions for easier visas.

l Additional supplies of dual-use tech: Curbs on dual-use technology have been eased over the years, and the US will probably agree to further relaxation.

l Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline: The US has sanctions in place against Iran. However, in practice these have not prevented European countries, China and India from doing big commercial deals with Iran. So, Dr Singh could succeed in getting a no-objection butturance from the US.

The fact is, prime ministerial visits aim to improve the climate for decisions. They rarely yield agreements that have not already been negotiated. Dr Singh will be lucky to get many US commitments on the wish list he takes to Washington. But as Dubya himself would say, we might be misunderestimating our Man.