Microsoft Hatred FAQ 5136

I'd be VERY surprised if IBM predicted that there would be only 5 COMPUTERS in *2000* - perhaps you mean 5 *manufacturers* of computers? - unless the prediction was made a VERY long time ago. I think you are giving a badly-mangled version of something I saw when I worked at IBM.

About 10 years ago, when I was working at IBM, there was an employee newsletter circulated commemorating the rest of Thomas J. Watson Jr., a former CEO of IBM. They cited an old interview with him in which he had predicted that the world wide market for computers would be 3 in the next year; in other words, he expected IBM to sell three of their computers in that year. However, he was not making this prediction in or for the year 2000; the interview had taken place just after World War II - 1946 perhaps - and was for the next year. I wasn't born then but, from what I recall about computer history, selling 3 Eniacs (or whatever model they were making that year) isn't too far out of line with what actually happened.

Of course, we are talking about a time when computers were absolutely immense, ran on vacuum tubes (the transistor hadn't been invented yet) and filled very large rooms - and yet probably had less computing power than the average microwave oven you can buy today. Only very large companies or national governments would want or need a computer in those days. Everyone else was still using typewriters - which was IBM's bread and butter in those days - for their business needs.

Rhino